Tuesday, 12 October 2021

The Week the Wheels Came Off (Part 1)

It all started with a question about toilet facilities. An seemingly innocuous question but with far reaching consequences.

COVID-19 daily case numbers in New Zealand - and with that read Auckland - had been bubbling around the mid-twenties for about a week. Not exactly stratospheric but not the downward trend that we were hoping for….or from our previous experience with the battle against the virus were expecting.

It was Monday afternoon and Jacinda Ardern, the prime minister and Ashley Broomfield , the director general of health, were due to make their regular appearance at the 4pm press conference to update the nation on the latest outbreak. And, as promised a week earlier, they would announce cabinet's decision on whether to change the level of restrictions in Auckland. Business as usual then.

It’s always reassuring to watch the dynamic duo in action. Hhhmmm, maybe a super hero analogy is taking it a bit too far - okay how about a sporting comparison? A striking partnership in football maybe? Except I can’t think of one. That says more about me being a Boro fan than it does my football knowledge. Lineker and Beardsley perhaps? Anyway back to the story.

It’s fair to say that the country had already decided that with case numbers refusing to budge, there was no way that restrictions in Auckland would be changed - despite the entire city secretly looking forward to the day things returned to something like normal. Seven weeks in one of the strictest lockdowns in the world was taking its toll and cracks were starting to appear. But science is science and numbers don’t lie…..

Which is why it came as a total surprise that restrictions in Auckland were going to be loosened a little, as the first step towards opening up the country. “We’re doing what now?” came the collective response, somewhat surprised at this turn of events. 

The four-tier alert level system, the backbone of New Zealand’s response plan for the past 18 months, suddenly had a three-step “road-map” layered over the top on top of Auckland’s level settings. According to this new plan, Auckland would move up several steps in order to arrive at a lower level. Confused? You wouldn't be the only one.

The first step of the new three level road-map for Auckland meant that groups of two bubbles could meet but only outdoors. In effect that meant that families could be reunited with relatives or two groups of friends could meet. The key message was that it should be outdoors. Also, providing it was a planned event, up to ten people could take part in a recreational activity providing social distancing and correct hygiene measures were applied. 

The assembled media were no doubt a bit surprised, caught off guard even, by this new announcement What road-map? This was the first we'd heard about it? Had we missed a briefing? WTF?

A barrage of questions from the media representatives in the room commenced. Rather than putting the room at ease, the answers were unsettling. The prime minister referred to the elimination strategy, the plan that we had been following since the start of the pandemic in 2020, in the past tense. The director general of health said elimination remained the approach. What was going on?

"So if a group of friends get themselves yoga mats, can we all meet up in the park for a natter?" came one question.

"Yes, if it's an organised event," came the response. A dubious reply to a question designed to prod and probe at the rationale.

Then the toilet question came. And the already wonky looking wheels came off. 

"So presumably if we can meet other family groups outside, it's okay to go to their house for a BBQ?" asked one media representative.

"As long as you remain outside at all times," came the response from the prime minister

"What if you want to go to the toilet?" a reasonable question, "can we use theirs?"

The director general of health appeared to suggest that that particular scenario hadn't been modelled but suggested people took it in turns to visit the loo, assuming no other household members were present. Sensible I suppose and better than suggesting individuals water the geraniums.

"Perhaps you shouldn't stay long enough that it becomes an issue," suggested the prime minister tersely. 

This was not going well. Leaks have always been a problem for politicians but this was ridiculous. In practice it was unlikely that a police officer was going to arrest you for using an inside toilet and escort you from the premises, but this was new territory for New Zealand. Decision making on the spot and appearing to flim-flam a response to a reasonable, and is has to be said, not entirely unexpected question. 

But perhaps the most surprising thing about the whole debacle was that Ardern and Broomfield were uncharacteristically tense and irritable. 

"What about outdoor pools? Can we use those?" came another question.

It was a question too far and the prime minister had clearly had enough

"I've not been briefed on that scenario so we'll look into it and get back to you."

And with that she stepped down from the podium and left the media conference. It had clearly not gone according to plan, unless the plan was to confuse and worry people in which case they did a sterling job. Ardern’s former chief of staff Neale Jones later called it “a long and confusing surrender note”. He might have a point.

In the days that followed further information was issued to try and clarify the plan. It transpired that part of the thinking that had informed the changes announced was the knowledge that the virus had crept into some of the most marginalised communities in Auckland, in transitional and emergency accommodation, among the homeless, where contact tracing is a colossal challenge, and where alert levels often matter little. Aotearoa’s luck appeared to have run out.

In the week that followed, the outbreak broke out of Auckland and headed south and north and case numbers steady spiralled upwards. Then, on the Wednesday that followed, it was announced that the recommended gap between vaccine shots was being reduced from six to three weeks. The message was don't delay - go get vaccinated. 

It maybe that the recent outbreak and the community groups that had been infected posed a particular challenge to control gave need to accelerate down the road (map) but it appeared rushed rather than planned. But there is no need to panic. Just yet.

Yes, the borders have been strengthened, and many have faced economic hardship, but overall the impacts have been far less that in most other countries, and we have had twelve months of relatively normal life. One bad week doesn't a bad campaign make and there is still time to recover some of the lost ground and get clearer messaging out there. 

In the meantime, the focus is on the roll out of the vaccine programme. Encouraging everyone to get their vaccination so we can enjoy our summer. So far this appears to be gaining traction - no doubt spurred by the slowly increasing case numbers outside the Auckland region. Whilst Aotearoa rolls up its sleeves, the challenge for the government will be to recapture the narrative: lay out the rationale, detail the structures being put in place, and avoid the cacophony of mixed messages and scrambled slogans. 




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